This year, the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala is likely to hit kerala on 5th June with a model error of Plus minus 4 days.
The monsoon arrival in Kerala is slightly delayed as the Normal date of onset of Monsoon in Kerla is 1st June.
The National Weather Forecasting Centre of the India Meteorological Department,has come out with the forecast of Monsoon onset over Kerala. The silent features are given below:
“Currently, it (a low pressure area, the first stage of any cyclone) is in southeast Bay of Bengal. But as it moves further north and then northeast Bay of Bengal, it will affect the pace of monsoon. This will also have an impact on the onset of monsoon over Kerala,” IMD director general Mrutunjay Mohapatra said.
Advance of the southwest monsoon over Indian main land is marked by monsoon onset over Kerala and is an important indicator characterizing the transition from hot and dry season to a rainyseason. As the monsoon progresses northward, relief from scorching summer temperatures is experienced over the areas.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala from 2005 onwards. An indigenously developed state of the art statistical model with a model error of ± 4 days is used for the purpose.
The 6 Predictors used in the models are;
- Minimum Temperatures over North-west India,
- Pre monsoon rain fall peak over south Peninsula,
- Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) over South China Sea,
- Lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian Ocean,
- Upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean, and
- Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) over the south-west Pacific region.
IMD’s operational forecasts of the date of monsoon onset over Kerala during the past 15 years (2005-2019) were proved to be correct except in 2015.